Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models

 

Many countries have implemented social programs providing long-term financial or in-kind entitlements. These programs often focus on specific age-groups and consequently their expenditure streams are subject to demographic change. Given the strains already existing on public budgets, long-term forecasts are an increasingly important instrument to monitor the budgetary consequences of social programs. The expected development of the labour force is a key input to these forecasts. We suggest combining a functional data approach to age-profiles of labour market participation rates with information on education, marital status and other exogenous variables to improve long-term forecasts of labour supply.

Cite

@techreport{participationrates,
  author      = {Thomas Url and Rob J Hyndman and Alexander Dokumentov},
  institution = {Department of Econometrics \& Business Statistics, Monash University},
  number      = {03/16},
  title       = {Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models},
  type        = {Working paper},
  url         = {http://robjhyndman.com/publications/participation-rates/},
  year        = 2016
}