Forecasting without significance tests?

Working papers
Authors

Andrey V Kostenko and Rob J Hyndman

Published

5 November 2008

Publication details

Working paper

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Statistical significance testing has little useful purpose in business forecasting, and other tools are to be preferred. For selecting or ranking forecasting methods (especially those based on models) there exist simple but powerful and practical alternative approaches that are not tests in any sense. It is suggested that forecasters place less emphasis on p-values and more emphasis on the predictive ability of models.