Forecasting without significance tests?

Working papers

Andrey V Kostenko and Rob J Hyndman


5 November 2008

Publication details

Working paper




Statistical significance testing has little useful purpose in business forecasting, and other tools are to be preferred. For selecting or ranking forecasting methods (especially those based on models) there exist simple but powerful and practical alternative approaches that are not tests in any sense. It is suggested that forecasters place less emphasis on p-values and more emphasis on the predictive ability of models.