A brief history of forecasting competitions

Rob J Hyndman
(2020) International Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 7-14

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Forecasting competitions are now so widespread that it is often forgotten how controversial they were when first held, and how influential they have been over the years. I briefly review the history of forecasting competitions, and discuss what we have learned about their design and implementation, and what they can tell us about forecasting. I also provide a few suggestions for potential future competitions, and for research about forecasting based on competitions.

This paper won the “Outstanding M Paper Award” from the International Journal of Forecasting.