Publications
Books
Papers
- (2026) Towards socially responsible forecasting: Identifying and typifying forecasting harms. arXiv
- (2026) Winter forecasting of respiratory viruses in Victoria Australia. DOI
- (2026) Multivariate reconciliation for hierarchical time series. arXiv pdf
- (2026) Ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 activity to support Australia's pandemic response: 2020–22. PLOS Computational Biology 22(4), e1014199. DOI pdf
- (2026) When lookout sees crackle: Anomaly detection via kernel density estimation. arXiv pdf
- (2026) Anomaly detection using surprisals. arXiv pdf
- (2026) Forecasting the age structure of the scientific workforce in Australia. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 68(1), 1369–1473. DOI pdf
- (2025) ggtime: A grammar of temporal graphics. arXiv
- (2025) Distortion corrected kernel density estimator on Riemannian manifolds. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 34(3), 906–922. DOI pdf
- (2025) Moving averages. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 1559–1562. Springer. DOI pdf
- (2025) Business forecasting methods. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 362–372. Springer. DOI pdf
- (2025) Forecasting overview. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 964–968. Springer. DOI pdf
- (2025) Hierarchical time series forecasting in emergency medical services. Journal of Service Research 28(4), 278–295. DOI pdf
- (2025) MSTL: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Algorithm for Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Patterns. International J Operational Research 52(1). DOI arXiv
- (2025) Comments on: Exploratory functional data analysis. TEST 34, 483–487. DOI pdf
- (2025) Optimal forecast reconciliation with time series selection. European J Operational Research 323(2), 455–470. DOI pdf
- (2024) Extreme value modelling of feature residuals for anomaly detection in dynamic graphs. 2024 11th International Conference on Soft Computing & Machine Intelligence (ISCMI), pp. 32–37. DOI arXiv
- (2024) Functional data analysis for peak shape forecasting. pdf
- (2024) Online conformal inference for multi-step time series forecasting. arXiv pdf
- (2024) Improving out-of-sample forecasts of stock price indexes with forecast reconciliation and clustering. Quantitative Finance 24(11), 1641–1667. DOI pdf
- (2024) Forecasting interrupted time series. J Operational Research Society 76(4), 790–803. DOI pdf
- (2024) Sparse Multiple Index Models for High-dimensional Nonparametric Forecasting. pdf
- (2024) Forecast Linear Augmented Projection (FLAP): A free lunch to reduce forecast error variance. arXiv pdf
- (2024) Cross-temporal probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Methodological and practical issues. International J Forecasting 40(3), 1134–1151. DOI arXiv pdf
- (2024) Forecasting system's accuracy: a framework for the comparison of different structures. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 40(2), 462–482. DOI pdf
- (2024) Editorial: Innovations in Hierarchical Forecasting. International J Forecasting 40(2), 427–429. DOI pdf
- (2024) Forecast reconciliation: a review. International J Forecasting 40(2), 430–456. DOI pdf
- (2024) Obituary: Everette S Gardner Jr. International J Forecasting 40(1), 4–5. DOI pdf
- (2023) Series of weekly COVID-19 epidemic situational assessment reports submitted to the Australian Government Department of Health, Office of Health Protection, from April 2020 to December 2023. DOI
- (2023) Forecast combinations: an over 50-year review. International J Forecasting 39(4), 1518–1547. DOI arXiv
- (2023) LoMEF: A Framework to Produce Local Explanations for Global Model Time Series Forecasts. International J Forecasting 39(3), 1424–1447. DOI arXiv
- (2023) Distributed ARIMA Models for Ultra-long Time Series. International J Forecasting 39(3), 1163–1184. DOI arXiv
- (2023) Understanding links between water-quality variables and nitrate concentration in freshwater streams using high-frequency sensor data. PLoS ONE 18(6), e0287640. DOI arXiv
- (2023) Lee-Carter models: the wider context. International J Forecasting 39(3), 1053–1054. DOI pdf
- (2023) Conditional normalization in time series analysis. arXiv
- (2023) Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020. Scientific Reports 13(8763). DOI pdf
- (2023) Probabilistic forecast reconciliation: properties, evaluation and score optimisation. European J Operational Research 306(2), 693–706. DOI pdf
- (2023) Forecasting, causality and feedback. International J Forecasting 39(2), 558–560. DOI pdf
- (2023) Meta-learning how to forecast time series. J Forecasting 42(6), 1476–1501. DOI pdf
- (2023) Probabilistic forecasts using expert judgment: the road to recovery from COVID-19. J Travel Research 62(1), 233–258. DOI pdf
- (2022) Anomaly detection in dynamic networks. arXiv
- (2022) Forecasting for Social Good. International J Forecasting 38(3), 1245–1257. DOI pdf
- (2022) Leave-one-out kernel density estimates for outlier detection. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 31(2), 586–599. DOI pdf
- (2022) STR: seasonal-trend decomposition using regression. INFORMS J on Data Science 1(1), 50–62. DOI pdf
- (2022) Visualizing probability distributions across bivariate cyclic temporal granularities. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 31(1), 14–25. DOI pdf
- (2022) Fast forecast reconciliation using linear models. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 31(1), 263–282. DOI pdf
- (2022) Seasonal functional autoregressive models. J Time Series Analysis 43(2), 197–218. DOI pdf
- (2022) Model selection in reconciling hierarchical time series. Machine Learning 111, 739–789. DOI arXiv
- (2021) Reconstructing missing and anomalous data collected from high-frequency in-situ sensors in fresh waters. International J Environmental Research and Public Health 18(23), 12803. DOI pdf
- (2021) Detecting distributional differences between temporal granularities for exploratory time series analysis. pdf
- (2021) Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive. Proceedings of the 35th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2021) Track on Datasets and Benchmarks. arXiv pdf Online
- (2021) A Look at the Evaluation Setup of the M5 Forecasting Competition. arXiv
- (2021) Hierarchical forecast reconciliation with machine learning. Applied Soft Computing 112, 107756. DOI arXiv
- (2021) Quantile forecasting with ensembles and combinations. Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, eds. Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman and Udo Sglavo, pp. 371–375. John Wiley & Sons. Amazon pdf
- (2021) Principles and algorithms for forecasting groups of time series: locality and globality. International J Forecasting 37(4), 1632–1653. DOI pdf
- (2021) Dimension reduction for outlier detection using DOBIN. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 30(1), 204–219. DOI pdf
- (2021) Forecasting the old-age dependency ratio to determine a sustainable pension age. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 63(2), 241–256. DOI pdf
- (2021) Computationally efficient learning of statistical manifolds. pdf
- (2021) Assessing mortality inequality in the US: What can be said about the future?. Insurance, Mathematics and Economics 99, 152–162. DOI pdf
- (2021) Forecast reconciliation: A geometric view with new insights on bias correction. International J Forecasting 37(1), 343–359. DOI pdf
- (2021) Hierarchical probabilistic forecasting of electricity demand with smart meter data. J American Statistical Association 116(533), 27–43. DOI pdf
- (2021) Non-linear mixed-effects models for time series forecasting of smart meter demand. J Forecasting 40(6), 1118–1130. DOI pdf
- (2021) Anomaly detection in high-dimensional data. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 30(2), 360–374. DOI arXiv
- (2021) Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation. European J Operational Research 291(2), 693–710. DOI pdf
- (2020) Modern strategies for time series regression. International Statistical Review 88(S1), S179-S204. DOI arXiv
- (2020) Estimating temporal variation in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and physical distancing behaviour in Australia. pdf
- (2020) Spatial modelling of the two-party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001–2016. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 62(2), 168–185. DOI pdf
- (2020) Early classification of spatio-temporal events using partial information. PLoS ONE 15(8), e0236331. DOI pdf
- (2020) GRATIS: GeneRAting TIme Series with diverse and controllable characteristics. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 13(4), 354–376. DOI arXiv
- (2020) Anomaly detection in streaming nonstationary temporal data. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 29(1), 13–27. DOI pdf
- (2020) Optimal non-negative forecast reconciliation. Statistics & Computing 30(5), 1167–1182. DOI pdf
- (2020) On normalization and algorithm selection for unsupervised outlier detection. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 34, 309–354. DOI pdf
- (2020) Hospital characteristics, rather than surgical volume, predict length of stay following colorectal cancer surgery. Australian and New Zealand J Public Health 44(1), 73–82. DOI pdf
- (2020) Calendar-based graphics for visualizing people's daily schedules. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 29(3), 490–502. DOI pdf
- (2020) Hierarchical forecasting. Macroeconomic forecasting in the era of big data, ed. P. Fuleky, Chapter 21, pp. 689–719. Springer. DOI Amazon pdf
- (2020) A new tidy data structure to support exploration and modeling of temporal data. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 29(3), 466–478. DOI pdf
- (2020) FFORMA: Feature-based Forecast Model Averaging. International J Forecasting 36(1), 86–92. DOI pdf
- (2020) Forecasting in social settings: the state of the art. International J Forecasting 36(1), 15–28. DOI pdf
- (2020) A brief history of forecasting competitions. International J Forecasting 36(1), 7–14. DOI pdf
- (2019) Predicting the whole distribution with methods for depth data analysis demonstrated on a colorectal cancer treatment study. Statistics and Data Science, ed. H Nguyen, pp. 162–182. Springer, Singapore. DOI pdf
- (2019) Machine learning applications in time series hierarchical forecasting. arXiv
- (2019) A feature-based procedure for detecting technical outliers in water-quality data from in situ sensors. Water Resources Research 55(11), 8547–8568. DOI pdf
- (2019) Predicting sediment and nutrient concentrations from high-frequency water-quality data. PLoS ONE 14(8), e0215503. DOI arXiv
- (2019) Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization. J American Statistical Association 114(526), 804–819. DOI pdf
- (2019) Quantification of energy savings from energy conservation measures in buildings using machine learning. ECEEE Summer Study Proceedings, Presqu'île de Giens, France. Online pdf
- (2019) You are what you vote: the social and demographic factors that influence your vote. The Conversation. Online
- (2019) Revealing high-frequency trading provision of liquidity with visualization. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Software Engineering and Information Management, pp. 157–165. ACM, Bali, Indonesia. 10-13 January 2019. pdf pdf
- (2019) Detection of cybersecurity attacks through analysis of web browsing activities using principal component analysis. pdf
- (2019) A framework for automated anomaly detection in high frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors. Science of the Total Environment 664, 885–898. DOI arXiv
- (2019) Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors. International J Forecasting 35(2), 616–633. DOI pdf
- (2018) Crude oil price forecasting based on internet concern using an extreme learning machine. International J Forecasting 34(4), 665–677. DOI pdf
- (2018) Bivariate smoothing of mortality surfaces with cohort and period ridges. Stat 7(e199). DOI pdf
- (2018) Exploring the sources of uncertainty: why does bagging for time series forecasting work?. European J Operational Research 268(2), 545–554. DOI pdf
- (2018) Visualizing big energy data: solutions for this crucial component of data analysis. IEEE Power and Energy Magazine 16(3), 18–25. DOI pdf
- (2018) A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 120, 70–83. DOI pdf
- (2017) Trends in indigenous mortality and life expectancy 2001–2015. Cat. no. IHW 174. Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Online
- (2017) Coherent probabilistic forecasts for hierarchical time series. Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR, pp. 3348–3357. Online pdf
- (2017) Forecasting with temporal hierarchies. European J Operational Research 262(1), 60–74. DOI pdf
- (2017) Handgun acquisitions in California after two mass shootings. Annals of Internal Medicine 166(10), 698–706. DOI pdf
- (2017) Grouped functional time series forecasting: an application to age-specific mortality rates. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 26(2), 330–343. DOI pdf
- (2017) A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naïve forecasts. J the Operational Research Society 68(9), 1082–1084. DOI pdf
- (2017) The Australian Macro Database: An online resource for macroeconomic research in Australia. pdf
- (2017) Associations between outdoor fungal spores and childhood and adolescent asthma hospitalisations. J Allergy and Clinical Immunology 139(4), 1140–1147.e4. DOI pdf
- (2017) Dynamic Algorithm Selection for Pareto Optimal Set Approximation. J Global Optimization 67(1), 263–282. DOI pdf
- (2017) Visualising forecasting algorithm performance using time series instance spaces. International J Forecasting 33(2), 345–358. DOI pdf
- (2016) Exploring the influence of short-term temperature patterns on temperature-related mortality: a case-study of Melbourne, Australia. Environmental Health 15(1), 107. DOI pdf
- (2016) Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box-Cox transformation. International J Forecasting 32(2), 303–312. DOI pdf
- (2016) On sampling methods for costly multi-objective black-box optimization. Advances in Stochastic and Deterministic Global Optimization, eds. P. M. Pardalos, A. Zhigljavsky and J. \v Zilinskas, pp. 273–296. Springer, New York. DOI Amazon pdf
- (2016) Forecasting uncertainty in electricity smart meter data by boosting additive quantile regression. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 7(5), 2448–2455. DOI pdf
- (2016) Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 97, 16–32. DOI pdf
- (2016) Bayesian rank selection in multivariate regression. pdf
- (2016) Probabilistic Energy Forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and Beyond. International J Forecasting 32(3), 896–913. DOI pdf
- (2016) Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models. pdf
- (2015) Another look at forecast-accuracy metrics for intermittent demand. Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions, eds. Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman and Udo Sglavo, Chapter 3.8, pp. 204–211. John Wiley & Sons. Amazon
- (2015) Measuring forecast accuracy. Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions, eds. Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman and Udo Sglavo, Chapter 3.4, pp. 177–184. John Wiley & Sons. Amazon
- (2015) New IJF editors. International J Forecasting 31(4), 1104. DOI pdf
- (2015) Statistical issues with using herbarium data for the estimation of invasion lag-phases. Biological Invasions 17(12), 3371–3381. DOI pdf
- (2015) Do human rhinovirus infections and food allergy modify grass pollen–induced asthma hospital admissions in children?. J Allergy and Clinical Immunology 136(4), 1118–1120.e2. DOI pdf
- (2015) Probabilistic time series forecasting with boosted additive models: an application to smart meter data. pdf
- (2015) Large-scale unusual time series detection. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW), pp. 1616–1619, Atlantic City, NJ, USA. 14--17 November 2015. DOI pdf
- (2015) Monash Electricity Forecasting Model. pdf
- (2015) Modelling the participation function with a one-parameter family of cubic splines. Report to ACTAC ITI technical committee. pdf
- (2015) Discussion of "High-dimensional autocovariance matrices and optimal linear prediction". Electronic J. Statistics 9(1), 792–796. DOI pdf
- (2015) Change to the IJF editors. International J Forecasting 31(2), 391. DOI pdf
- (2014) Optimally reconciling forecasts in a hierarchy. Foresight Fall 2014, 42–48. pdf
- (2014) Outdoor fungal spores are associated with child asthma hospitalisations - a case-crossover study. European Respiratory Journal 44(Suppl 58). DOI Online
- (2014) Efficient identification of the Pareto optimal set. Learning and Intelligent Optimization: Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pp. 341–352. Springer. DOI Online pdf
- (2014) Low-dimensional decomposition, smoothing and forecasting of sparse functional data. pdf
- (2014) Common functional principal component models for mortality forecasting. Contributions in infinite-dimensional statistics and related topics, eds. Enea G. Bongiorno, Ernesto Salinelli, Aldo Goia and Philippe Vieu, Chapter 29, pp. 161–166. Online pdf
- (2014) A gradient boosting approach to the Kaggle load forecasting competition. International J Forecasting 30(2), 382–394. DOI pdf
- (2014) Boosting multi-step autoregressive forecasts. Proceedings of The 31st International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 109–117, Beijing, China. June 2014. pdf
- (2014) Prospective life tables. Computational Actuarial Science with R, ed. Arthur Charpentier, Chapter 8, pp. 323–348. Chapman & Hall/CRC. Amazon pdf
- (2013) Nonparametric and semiparametric response surface methodology: a review of designs, models and optimization techniques. pdf
- (2013) Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models. Demography 50(1), 261–283. DOI pdf
- (2013) A change of editors. International J Forecasting 29(1), A1. DOI
- (2012) Recursive and direct multi-step forecasting: the best of both worlds. pdf
- (2012) An enhanced mortality database for estimating indigenous life expectancy: a feasibility study. Cat. no. IHW 75. Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Online
- (2012) A case-crossover design to examine the role of aeroallergens and respiratory viruses on childhood asthma exacerbations requiring hospitalization: The MAPCAH study. J Biometrics & Biostatistics S7(018). DOI pdf
- (2012) Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 27(1), 134–141. DOI pdf
- (2012) Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025. BMC Medical Research Methodology 12(1), 17. DOI pdf
- (2011) Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. J American Statistical Association 106(496), 1513–1527. DOI pdf
- (2011) Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modelling. Atmospheric Environment 45(1), 128–136. DOI pdf
- (2011) Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. Demographic Research 25, 173–214. DOI pdf
- (2011) Method for optimizing coating properties based on an evolutionary algorithm approach. Analytical Chemistry 83(16), 6373–6380. DOI pdf
- (2011) Giving a useR! talk. The R journal 3(1), 69–71. pdf
- (2011) Tourism forecasting: an introduction. International J Forecasting 27(3), 817–821. DOI pdf
- (2011) The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia. Energy Policy 39(6), 3709–3719. DOI pdf
- (2011) Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 55(9), 2579–2589. DOI pdf
- (2011) Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: a highest density region approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 55(8), 2477–2489. DOI pdf
- (2011) Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 81(7), 1310–1324. DOI pdf
- (2011) The value of feedback in forecasting competitions. International J Forecasting 27(3), 845–849. DOI pdf
- (2011) The tourism forecasting competition. International J Forecasting 27(3), 822–844. DOI pdf
- (2011) Quantifying the influence of local meteorology on air quality using generalized additive models. Atmospheric Environment 45(6), 1328–1336. DOI pdf
- (2010) Free open-source forecasting using R. Foresight: the International J Applied Forecasting 17, 19–24. Online pdf
- (2010) The vector innovations structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting. Statistical Modelling 10(4), 353–374. DOI pdf
- (2010) Phenological change detection while accounting for abrupt and gradual trends in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment 114(12), 2970–2980. DOI pdf
- (2010) Exploratory graphics for functional data. Proceedings, Interface 2010: Computing Science and Statistics, Seattle, Washington, June 16--19.. pdf
- (2010) Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model. Proceedings, 20th Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference.
- (2010) Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women. Cancer Epidemiology 32(5), 542–549. DOI pdf
- (2010) Rainbow plots, bagplots, and boxplots for functional data. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 19(1), 29–45. DOI pdf
- (2010) Functionalization of microarray devices: process optimization using a multiobjective PSO and multiresponse MARS modeling. Proceedings. 2010 IEEE congress on evolutionary computation, July 2010. Barcelona, Spain.. pdf
- (2010) Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends of age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales. J Epidemiology 20(2), 159–165. DOI pdf
- (2010) Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment 114(1), 106–115. DOI pdf
- (2010) Density forecasting for long-term peak electricity demand. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 25(2), 1142–1153. DOI pdf
- (2010) Moving averages. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 866–869. Springer. Online pdf
- (2010) Business forecasting methods. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 185–187. Springer. Online pdf
- (2010) Forecasting overview. International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, ed. Miodrag Lovric, pp. 536–539. Springer. Online pdf
- (2010) Encouraging replication and reproducible research. International J Forecasting 26(1), 2–3. DOI pdf
- (2010) Changing of the guard. International J Forecasting 26(1), 1. DOI pdf
- (2009) Exponential smoothing and non-negative data. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 51(4), 415–432. DOI pdf
- (2009) Forecasting functional time series. J Korean Statistical Society 38(3), 199–221. DOI pdf
- (2009) Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating. 18th World IMAS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia. 13-17 July 2009.. Online pdf
- (2009) Monitoring processes with changing variances. International J Forecasting 25(3), 518–525. DOI pdf
- (2009) Rule induction for forecasting method selection: meta-learning the characteristics of univariate time series. Neurocomputing 72(10-12), 2581–2594. DOI pdf
- (2009) Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism. International J Forecasting 25(1), 146–166. DOI pdf
- (2009) A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Economic Modelling 26(5), 1067–1074. DOI pdf
- (2008) Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns. European J Operational Research 191(1), 205–220. DOI pdf
- (2008) Forecasting without significance tests?. pdf
- (2008) Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration. International J Forecasting 24(3), 323–342. DOI pdf
- (2008) Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R. J Statistical Software 27(3), 1–22. pdf
- (2008) The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 60(2), 407–426. DOI pdf
- (2008) Bagplots, boxplots and outlier detection for functional data. Functional and Operatorial Statistics, eds. S Dabo-Niang and F Ferraty, Chapter 31, pp. 201–207. Springer. DOI pdf
- (2008) Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism. Tourism Management 29(1), 19–31. DOI pdf
- (2008) Generation of synthetic sequences of half-hourly temperature. Environmetrics 19(8), 818–835. DOI pdf
- (2007) Measurement of changes in antihypertensive drug utilisation following primary care educational interventions. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 16(3), 297–308. DOI pdf
- (2007) Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 51(10), 4942–4956. DOI pdf
- (2007) Do levels of airborne grass pollen influence asthma hospital admissions?. Clinical and Experimental Allergy 37(11), 1641–1647. DOI pdf
- (2007) A state space model for exponential smoothing with group seasonality. pdf
- (2007) Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: a highest density region approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 51(7), 3418–3432. DOI pdf
- (2007) Minimum sample size requirements for seasonal forecasting models. Foresight: the International J Applied Forecasting 6, 12–15. pdf
- (2007) Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models. Statistics in Medicine 26(2), 458–470. DOI pdf
- (2006) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International J Forecasting 22(4), 679–688. DOI pdf
- (2006) Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions. Demographic Research 15(9), 289–310. pdf
- (2006) Projection pursuit estimator for multivariate conditional densities (Chinese). J. Fuzhou Univ. Nat. Sci. Ed. 34(6), 794–797. pdf
- (2006) Another look at forecast-accuracy metrics for intermittent demand. Foresight: the International J Applied Forecasting 4, 43–46. pdf
- (2006) A note on the categorization of demand patterns. J Operational Research Society 57(10), 1256–1257. DOI pdf
- (2006) A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel density estimation. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 50(11), 3009–3031. DOI pdf
- (2006) 25 years of time series forecasting. International J Forecasting 22(3), 443–473. DOI pdf
- (2006) Twenty-five years of forecasting. International J Forecasting 22(3), 413–414. DOI pdf
- (2006) Characteristic-based clustering for time series data. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 13(3), 335–364. DOI pdf
- (2006) Measuring change in prescription drug utilization in Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 15(7), 477–484. DOI pdf
- (2006) Local linear multivariate regression with variable bandwidth in the presence of heteroscedasticity. pdf
- (2006) The accuracy of television network rating forecasts: the effects of data aggregation and alternative models. Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 1(3), 147–155. pdf
- (2005) Sensitivity of the estimated air pollution-respiratory admissions relationship to statistical model choice. International J Environmental Health Research 15(6), 437–448. DOI pdf
- (2005) Empirical information criteria for time series forecasting model selection. J Statistical Computation and Simulation 75(10), 831–840. DOI pdf
- (2005) Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting. J Forecasting 24(6), 389–402. DOI pdf
- (2005) Book review of "Data analysis and graphics using R: an example-based approach" (Maindonald and Braun, 2003). J Population Research 22(2), 206–208. DOI pdf
- (2005) Dimension reduction for clustering time series using global characteristics. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol.3516. Proceedings, Computational Science -- ICCS 2005: 5th International Conference, pp. 792–795. Springer, 22-25 May 2005. Atlanta, GA, USA. DOI pdf
- (2005) Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach. Proceedings, 55th session of the International Statistical Institute. Sydney, Australia, April 2005. pdf
- (2005) Time series forecasting: the case for the single source of error state space approach. pdf
- (2005) Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models. J Forecasting 24(1), 17–37. DOI pdf
- (2005) Local linear forecasts using cubic smoothing splines. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 47(1), 87–99. DOI pdf
- (2005) Editorial. International J Forecasting 21(1), 1. DOI pdf
- (2004) The interaction between trend and seasonality. International J Forecasting 20(4), 561–563. DOI pdf
- (2004) Nonparametric confidence intervals for receiver operating characteristic curves. Biometrika 91(3), 743–750. DOI pdf
- (2004) Exponential smoothing models: means and variances for lead-time demand. European J Operational Research 158(2), 444–455. DOI pdf
- (2004) Spline interpolation for demographic variables: the monotonicity problem. J Population Research 21(1), 95–98. DOI pdf
- (2003) Normative data for the Rosner test of visual analysis skills on an Australian population. Optometry and Vision Science 80(6), 431–436. DOI pdf
- (2003) Unmasking the Theta method. International J Forecasting 19(2), 287–290. DOI pdf
- (2003) Improved methods for bandwidth selection when estimating ROC curves. Statistics & Probability Letters 64(2), 181–189. DOI pdf
- (2002) Mixed model-based hazard estimation. J Computational & Graphical Statistics 11(4), 784–798. DOI pdf
- (2002) Nonparametric estimation and symmetry tests for conditional density functions. J Nonparametric Statistics 14(3), 259–278. DOI pdf
- (2002) A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods. International J Forecasting 18(3), 439–454. DOI pdf
- (2002) Kalman filter. The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, eds. Hans Daellenbach and Robert Flood, p. 162. Cengage Learning Business Press. Amazon pdf
- (2002) Box-Jenkins modelling. The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, eds. Hans Daellenbach and Robert Flood, pp. 42–43. Cengage Learning Business Press. Amazon pdf
- (2002) ARIMA processes. The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, eds. Hans Daellenbach and Robert Flood, pp. 27–28. Cengage Learning Business Press. Amazon pdf
- (2002) Using R to teach econometrics. J Applied Econometrics 17(2), 175–189. DOI pdf
- (2001) Cycles and synchrony in the Collared Lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) in Arctic North America. Oecologia 126(2), 216–224. DOI pdf
- (2001) It's time to move from "what" to "why". International J Forecasting 17(4), 567–570. DOI pdf
- (2001) Data visualisation for time series in environmental epidemiology. J Epidemiology and Biostatistics 6(6), 433–443. pdf
- (2001) Statistical methodological issues in studies of air pollution and respiratory disease. New Trends in Statistical Modelling: Proceedings of the 16th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, eds. Bjarke Klein and Lars Korsholm, pp. 179–186. University of Southern Denmark, Denmark. July 2001. pdf
- (2001) Bandwidth selection for kernel conditional density estimation. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 36(3), 279–298. DOI pdf
- (2000) Non-Gaussian conditional linear AR(1) models. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 42(4), 479–495. DOI pdf
- (2000) Residual diagnostic plots for checking for model mis-specification in time series regression. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 42(4), 463–477. DOI pdf
- (2000) Seasonal adjustment methods for the analysis of respiratory disease in environmental epidemiology. pdf
- (2000) Book review of "Nonparametric econometrics" (Pagan and Ullah, 1999). The Economic Record 76, 309–311. pdf
- (2000) Generalized additive modelling of mixed distribution Markov models with application to Melbourne's rainfall. Australian & New Zealand J Statistics 42(2), 145–158. DOI pdf
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