Electricity price forecasting competition


17 February 2016

data science

The GEFCom competitions have been a great success in generating good research on forecasting methods for electricity demand, and in enabling a comprehensive comparative evaluation of various methods. But they have only considered price forecasting in a simplified setting. So I’m happy to see this challenge is being taken up as part of the European Energy Market Conference for 2016, to be held from 6-9 June at the University of Porto in Portugal.

The objective is to providing a dynamic and realistic gaming context, to involve the scientific, academic and industry community in order to address a real price forecast problem. The challenge will be to forecast the hourly spot price of the Iberian Electricity Market, MIBEL, on a daily rolling basis, for the 24 hours of the 5 days ahead. Over 14 days of competition, from 4th to 17th of April 2016, until 10.00 UTC, competitors must submit the forecast for the 5 days ahead. Historical hourly data will be provided for 2015. The winner will receive 1000 € and the 3 highest ranked forecasters will have free access to the EEM2016 Conference.

Further information about the competition can be obtained at the EEM2016 website, the COMPLATT website and the competition facebook page.

For an excellent summary of the relevant research to date, check out Rafał Weron’s IJF review paper on price forecasting. A shorter and simpler introduction is provided by Tao Hong in his article on Energy Forecasting: Past, Present and Future.