All Hyndsight posts by date

Forecasts are always wrong

Recently I was interviewed for the Monash Business School podcast “Thought Capital” on the topic of forecasting. You can listen to the episode here (or read the transcript).

Non-Gaussian forecasting using fable

library(tidyverse) library(tsibble) library(lubridate) library(feasts) library(fable) In my previous post about the new fable package, we saw how fable can produce forecast distributions, not just point forecasts. All my examples used Gaussian (normal) distributions, so in this post I want to show how non-Gaussian forecasting can be done. As an example, we will use eating-out expenditure in my home state of Victoria. vic_cafe <- tsibbledata::aus_retail %>% filter( State == "Victoria", Industry == "Cafes, restaurants and catering services" ) %>% select(Month, Turnover) vic_cafe %>% autoplot(Turnover) + ggtitle("Monthly turnover of Victorian cafes") Forecasting with transformations Clearly the variance is increasing with the level of the series, so we will consider modelling a Box-Cox transformation of the data.

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Tidy forecasting in R

The fable package for doing tidy forecasting in R is now on CRAN. Like tsibble and feasts, it is also part of the tidyverts family of packages for analysing, modelling and forecasting many related time series (stored as tsibbles). For a brief introduction to tsibbles, see this post from last month. Here we will forecast Australian tourism data by state/region and purpose. This data is stored in the tourism tsibble where Trips contains domestic visitor nights in thousands.

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Feature-based time series analysis

In my last post, I showed how the feasts package can be used to produce various time series graphics. The feasts package also includes functions for computing FEatures And Statistics from Time Series (hence the name). In this post I will give three examples of how these might be used. library(tidyverse) library(tsibble) library(feasts) Exploring Australian tourism data I used this example in my talk at useR!2019 in Toulouse, and it is also the basis of a vignette in the package, and a recent blog post by Mitchell O’Hara-Wild.

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Time series graphics using feasts

This is the second post on the new tidyverts packages for tidy time series analysis. The previous post is here. For users migrating from the forecast package, it might be useful to see how to get similar graphics to those they are used to. The forecast package is built for ts objects, while the feasts package provides features, statistics and graphics for tsibbles. (See my first post for a description of tsibbles.

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Tidy time series data using tsibbles

There is a new suite of packages for tidy time series analysis, that integrates easily into the tidyverse way of working. We call these the tidyverts packages, and they are available at tidyverts.org. Much of the work on these packages has been done by Earo Wang and Mitchell O’Hara-Wild. The first of the packages to make it to CRAN was tsibble, providing the data infrastructure for tidy temporal data with wrangling tools.

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Poll position: statistics and the Australian federal election

One of the few people in Australia who did not write off a possible Coalition win at the recent federal election was Peter Ellis. We’ve invited him to come and give a talk about making sense of opinion polls and the Australian federal election on Friday this week at Monash University. Visitors are welcome. Here are the details. 11am, 31 May 2019. Room G03, Learning and Teaching Building, 19 Ancora Imparo Way, Clayton Campus, Monash University

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You are what you vote

I’ve tried my hand at writing for the wider public with an article for The Conversation based on my paper with Di Cook and Jeremy Forbes on “Spatial modelling of the two-party preferred vote in Australian federal elections: 2001-2016”. With the next Australian election taking place tomorrow, we thought it was timely to put out a publicly accessible version of our analysis.

Translations of "Forecasting: principles and practice"

There are now translations of my forecasting textbook (coauthored with George Athanasopoulos) into Chinese and Korean. The Chinese translation was produced by a team led by Professor Yanfei Kang (Beihang University) and Professor Feng Li (Central University of Finance and Economics). The following students were also involved: Cheng Fan, Liu Yu, Long Xiaoyu, Wang Xiaoqian, Zeng Jiayue, Zhang Bohan, and Zhu Shuaidong. The Korean translation was produced by Dr Daniel Young Ho Kim.

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Post-docs in wind and solar power forecasting

We currently have two postdoc opportunities together with an industry partner in the field of wind and solar power forecasting (full time, Level B). They are suitable for recently graduated PhD students that can start between now and June-July. The opportunities are as follows: Wind power forecasting: 1 year contract Good programming skills in R and/or Python Solid background in Machine Learning and/or Statistics Background in time series forecasting desirable Solar power forecasting: 6 months contract Good programming skills in R and/or Python Solid background in Machine Learning and/or Statistics Data will be cloud coverage data from sky cams, so some image processing background is necessary Background in time series forecasting desirable Please contact Christoph Bergmeir if you are interested.

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