• ETC24502015

    Applied Forecasting for Business and Economics

    Reliable forecasts of business and economic variables must often be obtained against a backdrop of structural change in markets and the economy. This unit provides a practical introduction to methods suitable for forecasting in these circumstances including the classical decomposition of time series, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelling, and regression with auto-correlated disturbances. It also provides an introduction to applied multiple regression analysis. Students can expect to enhance their computer skills with exercises using R.

  • ETC32502015

    Business analytics

    Business analytics involves uncovering the hidden information in masses of business data using statistical models and algorithms. In this unit, some of the most widely used prediction and classification models will be covered. A suitable software environment for business analytics will be used, and tools for handling large data sets will be introduced.

    We will explore the trade-off and distinction between prediction, explanation and interpretation using statistical models. Topics to be covered include numerical optimisation; Monte Carlo simulation; resampling methods such as the bootstrap, cross-validation, and bagging; nonlinear and nonparametric methods such as regression splines, trees and support vector machines; principal components analysis and clustering.