John L. Pearce, Madison Hyer, Rob J. Hyndman, Margaret Loughnan, Martine Dennekamp and Neville Nicholls

Environmental Health (2016), 15:107


Several studies have identified the association between ambient temperature and mortality; however, several features of temperature behavior and their impacts on health remain unresolved.

We obtain daily counts of nonaccidental all-cause mortality data in the elderly (65 + years) and corresponding meteorological data for Melbourne, Australia during 1999 to 2006. We then characterize the temporal behavior of ambient temperature development by quantifying the rates of temperature change during periods designated by pre-specified windows ranging from 1 to 30 days. Finally, we evaluate if the association between same day temperature and mortality in the framework of a Poisson regression and include our temperature trajectory variables in order to assess if associations were modified by the nature of how the given daily temperature had evolved.

We found a positive significant association between short-term mortality risk and daily average temperature as mortality risk increased 6 % on days when temperatures were above the 90th percentile as compared to days in the referent 25–75th. In addition, we found that mortality risk associated with daily temperature varied by the nature of the temperature trajectory over the preceding twelve days and that peaks in mortality occurred during periods of high temperatures and stable trajectories and during periods of increasing higher temperatures and increasing trajectories.

Our method presents a promising tool for improving understanding of complex temperature health associations. These findings suggest that the nature of sub-monthly temperature variability plays a role in the acute impacts of temperature on mortality; however, further studies are suggested.


Climate, Health, Heat events, Heat wave, Temperature-mortality, Weather


Online paper

  Tag: epidemiology

17 posts
December 7th, 2016

Exploring the influence of short-term temperature patterns on temperature-related mortality: a case-study of Melbourne, Australia

John L. Pearce, Madison Hyer, Rob J. Hyndman, Margaret Loughnan, Martine Dennekamp and Neville Nicholls Environmental Health (2016), 15:107 Abstract: […]

June 10th, 2015

Do human rhinovirus infections and food allergy modify grass pollen–induced asthma hospital admissions in children?

Erbas et al.
Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (2015)

September 1st, 2014

Outdoor fungal spores are associated with child asthma hospitalisations – a case-crossover study

By Rachel Tham, Shyamali Dharmage, Philip Taylor, Ed Newbigin, Mimi L.K. Tang, Don Vicendese, Rob J Hyndman, Michael J Abramson and Bircan Erbas

European Respiratory Journal (2014), 44(Suppl 58).

June 25th, 2012

A case-crossover design to examine the role of aeroallergens and respiratory viruses on childhood asthma exacerbations requiring hospitalisation: The MAPCAH study

Erbas B, Dharmage SC, O’Sullivan M, Akram M, Newbigin E, Taylor P, Vicendese D, Hyndman RJ, Tang ML, Abramson MJ. […]

January 30th, 2012

Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

Bircan Erbas1, Shahid Ullah2, Rob J Hyndman3, Michelle Scollo4, Michael Abramson5 BMC Medical Research Methodology (2012) 12:17. School of Public […]

May 6th, 2010

Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women

Farah Yasmeen, Rob J Hyndman and Bircan Erbas Cancer Epidemiology, 34(5), 542-549. Abstract: The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates […]

February 6th, 2010

Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends of age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales

Bircan Erbas1, Muhammad Akram2, Dorota M Gertig3, Dallas English4,5, John L. Hopper5, Anne M Kavanagh6 and Rob J Hyndman2 Journal […]

July 16th, 2007

Measurement of changes in antihypertensive drug utilization following primary care educational interventions

Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety (2007), 16(3), 297-308. Fiona E. Horn1, John A. Mandryk1, Judith M. Mackson1, Sonia E. Wutzke1, Lynn […]

June 29th, 2007

Do levels of airborne grass pollen influence asthma hospital admissions?

Clinical and Experimental Allergy (2007), 37(11), 1641-1647. Bircan Erbas1, Jiun-Horng Chang1, Shyamali Dharmage1, Eng Kok Ong2, Rob J Hyndman3, Ed […]

February 16th, 2007

Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models

Statistics in Medicine (2007), 26(2), 458-470. Bircan Erbas1, Rob J Hyndman2 and Dorota M. Gertig3 Department of Public Health, The […]

May 16th, 2006

Measuring change in prescription drug utilization in Australia

Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety (2006), 15, 477-484. John A. Mandryk1, Judith M. Mackson1, Fiona E. Horn1, Sonia E. Wutzke1, Caro-Anne […]

December 16th, 2005

Sensitivity of the estimated air pollution-respiratory admissions relationship to statistical model

International Journal of Environmental Health Research (2005), 15(6), 437-448. Bircan Erbas1 and Rob J Hyndman2 Department of Public Health, The […]

August 16th, 2001

Data visualization for time series in environmental epidemiology

Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (2001), 6(6), 433-443. Bircan Erbas1 and Rob J Hyndman2 Department of General Practice & Public […]

July 2nd, 2001

Statistical methodological issues in studies of air pollution and respiratory disease

Erbas, B. and Hyndman, R.J. (2001) 16th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Odense, Denmark. 2-6 July, 2001. Abstract: Epidemiological studies […]

August 9th, 2000

Seasonal adjustment methods for the analysis of respiratory disease in environmental epidemiology

Bircan Erbas1 and Rob J Hyndman2 Department of General Practice & Public Health, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia. […]