John L. Pearce, Madison Hyer, Rob J. Hyndman, Margaret Loughnan, Martine Dennekamp and Neville Nicholls

Environmental Health (2016), 15:107


Several studies have identified the association between ambient temperature and mortality; however, several features of temperature behavior and their impacts on health remain unresolved.

We obtain daily counts of nonaccidental all-cause mortality data in the elderly (65 + years) and corresponding meteorological data for Melbourne, Australia during 1999 to 2006. We then characterize the temporal behavior of ambient temperature development by quantifying the rates of temperature change during periods designated by pre-specified windows ranging from 1 to 30 days. Finally, we evaluate if the association between same day temperature and mortality in the framework of a Poisson regression and include our temperature trajectory variables in order to assess if associations were modified by the nature of how the given daily temperature had evolved.

We found a positive significant association between short-term mortality risk and daily average temperature as mortality risk increased 6 % on days when temperatures were above the 90th percentile as compared to days in the referent 25–75th. In addition, we found that mortality risk associated with daily temperature varied by the nature of the temperature trajectory over the preceding twelve days and that peaks in mortality occurred during periods of high temperatures and stable trajectories and during periods of increasing higher temperatures and increasing trajectories.

Our method presents a promising tool for improving understanding of complex temperature health associations. These findings suggest that the nature of sub-monthly temperature variability plays a role in the acute impacts of temperature on mortality; however, further studies are suggested.


Climate, Health, Heat events, Heat wave, Temperature-mortality, Weather


Online paper

  Tag: demography

31 posts
December 7th, 2016

Exploring the influence of short-term temperature patterns on temperature-related mortality: a case-study of Melbourne, Australia

John L. Pearce, Madison Hyer, Rob J. Hyndman, Margaret Loughnan, Martine Dennekamp and Neville Nicholls Environmental Health (2016), 15:107 Abstract: […]

September 20th, 2016

smoothAPC package for R

The smoothAPC package implements smoothing of demographic data. The method uses bivariate thin plate splines, bivariate lasso-type regularization, and allows […]

September 14th, 2016

Grouped functional time series forecasting: an application to age-specific mortality rates

Han Lin Shang and Rob J Hyndman Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (2016) to appear. Abstract Age-specific mortality rates […]

January 24th, 2016

Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models

Thomas Url1, Rob J Hyndman2, Alexander Dokumentov2 Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria Monash Business School, Monash University, […]

December 24th, 2014

Bivariate data with ridges: two-dimensional smoothing of mortality rates

By Alexander Dokumentov and Rob J Hyndman

June 24th, 2014

Functional time series with applications in demography

A short course given at Humboldt University, Berlin, 24-25 June 2014.

June 5th, 2014

Low-dimensional decomposition, smoothing and forecasting of sparse functional data

By Alexander Dokumentov and Rob J Hyndman

May 24th, 2014

Common functional principal component models for mortality forecasting

By Rob J Hyndman and Farah Yasmeen
Contributions in infinite-dimensional statistics and related topics. Chapter 29, pages 161-166.

February 1st, 2014

demography: Forecasting mortality, fertility, migration and population data

The demography package for R contains functions for various demographic analyses. It provides facilities for demographic statistics, modelling and forecasting. […]

January 1st, 2014

Prospective life tables

By Heather Booth, Rob J Hyndman and Leonie Tickle. Chapter 8, pages 323-348, Computational Actuarial Science with R Chapman and Hall/CRC […]

October 11th, 2013

Coherent mortality forecasting using functional time series

A talk given today at Macquarie University, Sydney.

February 1st, 2013

Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models

Rob J Hyndmana, Heather Boothb and Farah Yasmeena aDepartment of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia. bThe […]

January 30th, 2012

Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

Bircan Erbas1, Shahid Ullah2, Rob J Hyndman3, Michelle Scollo4, Michael Abramson5 BMC Medical Research Methodology (2012) 12:17. School of Public […]

July 15th, 2011

Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods

Han Lin Shang1, Heather Booth2 and Rob J Hyndman1 Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia The […]

September 7th, 2010

Demographic forecasting using functional data analysis

University of Wollongong, 8 September 2010. Statistical Society of Australia, Victorian Branch, 28 September 2010. Updated version. September 2012. Abstract: […]

June 9th, 2010

Coherent functional forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy

Talk to be given at the International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, 20-23 June 2010. Slides

May 6th, 2010

Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women

Farah Yasmeen, Rob J Hyndman and Bircan Erbas Cancer Epidemiology, 34(5), 542-549. Abstract: The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates […]

February 6th, 2010

Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends of age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales

Bircan Erbas1, Muhammad Akram2, Dorota M Gertig3, Dallas English4,5, John L. Hopper5, Anne M Kavanagh6 and Rob J Hyndman2 Journal […]

July 24th, 2009

Forecasting functional time series

Rob J Hyndman and Han Lin Shang Journal of the Korean Statistical Society (2009), 38(3), 199-221. (With discussion) Abstract: We […]

July 16th, 2008

Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration

International Journal of Forecasting (2008), 24(3), 323-342. Rob J Hyndman1 and Heather Booth2 Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash […]

April 22nd, 2008

addb package for R

The addb package contains 9 data sets, taken from the Australian Demographic Data Bank version 3.2b, courtesy of Len Smith. […]

November 27th, 2007

Population forecasting and the importance of being uncertain

When: 27 November 2007 Where: Knibbs Lecture, Statistical Society of Australia Abstract: Forecasters had an inauspicious beginning, dabbling with divination, […]

July 16th, 2007

Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis (2007), 51, 4942-4956. Rob J Hyndman and Md Shahid Ullah Abstract: A new method is […]

February 22nd, 2007

Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models:

When: 12.00noon, Thu 22nd February 2007 Where: Room 213, Richard Berry Building, The University of Melbourne When: 2.30pm, Fri 1 […]

October 20th, 2006

Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions

Demographic Research (2006), 15(9), 289-310. Heather Booth1, Rob J. Hyndman2, Leonie Tickle3 and Piet De Jong3 Demography and Sociology Program, […]

April 16th, 2005

Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach

Hyndman, R.J., and Ullah, M.S. (2005) Invited paper, Demographic Forecasting session, 55th session of the International Statistical Institute, Sydney, Australia, […]

January 16th, 2004

Spline interpolation for demographic variables: the monotonicity problem

Journal of Population Research (2004), 21(1), 95-98. Len Smith1, Rob J. Hyndman2 and Simon N. Wood3 Australian Centre for Population […]