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Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson, Shu Fan, Hamidreza Zareipour, Alberto Troccoli and Rob J Hyndman
International Journal of Forecasting (2016), 32(3), 896–913.

Abstract
The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or single-valued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.

Online paper

Data

  Tag: accuracy

19 posts
January 25th, 2016

Probabilistic Energy Forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and Beyond

Tao Hong, Pierre Pinson, Shu Fan, Hamidreza Zareipour, Alberto Troccoli and Rob J Hyndman International Journal of Forecasting (2016), 32(3), 896–913. […]

January 13th, 2016

Visualising Forecasting Algorithm Performance using Time Series Instance Spaces

Yanfei Kang1, Rob J Hyndman2, Kate Smith-Miles3 School of Statistics, Renmin University of China. Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, […]

December 31st, 2015

Measuring forecast accuracy

This is a chapter for a new book on forecasting in business.

November 26th, 2015

Forecasting hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization

Shanika L Wickramasuriya, George Athanasopoulos, Rob J Hyndman Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University   Abstract Large collections […]

April 20th, 2015

A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating time series prediction

By Christoph Bergmeir, Rob J Hyndman, and Bonsoo Koo

September 23rd, 2014

Forecasting: principles and practice (UWA course)

Workshop held at UWA on 23-25 September 2014.

November 16th, 2006

Another look at measures of forecast accuracy

International Journal of Forecasting (2006). 22(4), 679-688. Rob J. Hyndman1 and Anne B. Koehler2 Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, […]

September 16th, 2006

Another look at measures of forecast accuracy for intermittent demand

Foresight: the International Journal of Applied Forecasting (2006). 4, 43-46. Rob J. Hyndman Abstract: Some of the proposed measures of […]