Fore­cast­ing Ace is look­ing for par­tic­i­pants to develop improved meth­ods for pre­dict­ing future events and out­comes. Their goal is to develop meth­ods for aggre­gat­ing many indi­vid­ual judg­ments in a man­ner that yields more accu­rate pre­dic­tions than any one per­son or small group alone could pro­vide. Poten­tial appli­ca­tions of the sys­tem include fore­cast­ing eco­nomic con­di­tions, polit­i­cal changes, tech­no­log­i­cal devel­op­ment and med­ical break­throughs.

They are cur­rently seek­ing to recruit indi­vid­u­als who have inter­est (and/​or exper­tise) in any of a wide range of cur­rent affairs, includ­ing but not lim­ited to pol­i­tics, eco­nom­ics, tech­nol­ogy, mil­i­tary affairs, social trends, and sci­ence and tech­nol­ogy. The over­all time com­mit­ment is 10–15 min­utes ini­tially, but then no more than a few min­utes at any one time, spread out over months or, if you are will­ing, even a few years. You can with­draw from par­tic­i­pa­tion at any time.

The study asks you to pro­vide your judg­ments on a vari­ety of sub­jects. You can respond to those you are inter­ested in and ignore the oth­ers. New top­ics will appear reg­u­larly and you will be able to revise your judg­ments with new infor­ma­tion until the event in ques­tion is resolved.

They are not the first to use crowd-​​sourcing for fore­cast­ing — kag­gle has been in that space for a cou­ple of years now. The dif­fer­ence seems to be that kag­gle is a com­pe­ti­tion between indi­vid­ual fore­cast­ers while forecasting-​​ace is plan­ning on com­bin­ing the indi­vid­ual fore­casts. It would be neat if forecasting-​​ace entered a kag­gle com­pe­ti­tion!

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