Refereed papers 2014 (1) A gradient boosting approach to the Kaggle load forecasting competition2013 (1) Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models2012 (3) A case-crossover design to examine the role of aeroallergens and respiratory viruses on childhood asthma exacerbations requiring hospitalisation: The MAPCAH study Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-20252011 (11) Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale circulation on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modelling Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods Method for optimizing coating properties based on an evolutionary algorithm approach The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series Improved interval estimation of long run response from a dynamic linear model: a highest density region approach Nonparametric time series forecasting with dynamic updating The value of feedback in forecasting competitions Quantifying the influence of local meteorology on air quality using generalized additive modelling The tourism forecasting competition2010 (8) Free open-source forecasting using R The vector innovations structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting Phenological change detection while accounting for abrupt and gradual trends in satellite image time series Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women Rainbow plots, bagplots and boxplots for functional data Using functional data analysis models to estimate future time trends of age-specific breast cancer mortality for the United States and England-Wales Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series Density forecasting for long-term peak electricity demand2009 (6) Exponential smoothing and non-negative data Forecasting functional time series Monitoring processes with changing variances Rule induction for forecasting method selection: meta-learning the characteristics of univariate time series Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge-Nelson decomposition2008 (6) Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism Generation of synthetic sequences of half-hourly temperatures2007 (6) Measurement of changes in antihypertensive drug utilization following primary care educational interventions Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach Do levels of airborne grass pollen influence asthma hospital admissions? Half-life estimation based on the bias-corrected bootstrap: a highest density region approach Minimum sample size requirements for seasonal forecasting models Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models2006 (10) Another look at measures of forecast accuracy Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions Projection pursuit estimator for multivariate conditional densities Another look at measures of forecast accuracy for intermittent demand A note on the categorization of demand patterns A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel density estimation 25 years of time series forecasting Characteristic-based clustering for time series data Measuring change in prescription drug utilization in Australia The accuracy of television network rating forecasts: the effects of data aggregation and alternative models2005 (5) Sensitivity of the estimated air pollution-respiratory admissions relationship to statistical model Empirical information criteria for time series forecasting model selection Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models Local linear forecasts using cubic smoothing splines2004 (4) The interaction between trend and seasonality Nonparametric confidence intervals for receiver operating characteristic curves Exponential smoothing models: Means and variances for lead-time demand Spline interpolation for demographic variables: the monotonicity problem2003 (3) Normative data for the Test of Visual Analysis Skills on an Australian population Unmasking the Theta method Improved methods for bandwidth selection when estimating ROC curves2002 (4) Mixed model-based hazard estimation Nonparametric estimation and symmetry tests for conditional density functions A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods Using R to Teach Econometrics2001 (4) Cycles and synchrony in the Collared Lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) in Arctic North America It's time to move from 'what' to 'why' Data visualization for time series in environmental epidemiology Bandwidth selection for kernel conditional density estimation2000 (3) Non-Gaussian conditional linear AR(1) models Residual diagnostic plots for model mis-specification in time series regression Generalized additive modelling of mixed distribution Markov models with application to Melbourne’s rainfall1998 (1) Smoothing non-Gaussian time series with autoregressive structure1997 (3) Nonparametric autocovariance function estimation Some properties and generalizations of non-negative Bayesian time series models The pricing and trading of options using a hybrid neural network model with historical volatility1996 (3) Sample quantiles in statistical packages Estimating and visualizing conditional densities Computing and graphing highest density regions1995 (1) Highest density forecast regions for non-linear and non-normal time series models1994 (1) Approximations and boundary conditions for continuous time threshold autoregressive processes1993 (1) Yule-Walker estimates for continuous-time autoregressive models1992 (1) On continuous-time threshold autoregression1991 (1) Continuous time threshold autoregressive models