This week, I am teaching my Business Analytics class about the bias-variance trade-off. For some reason, the proof is not contained in either ESL or ISL, even though it is quite simple. I also discovered that the proof currently provided on Wikipedia makes little sense in places.
So I wrote my own for the class. It is longer than necessary to ensure there are no jumps that might confuse students.
Continue reading →
At the recent International Symposium on Forecasting, held in Riverside, California, Tillman Gneiting gave a great talk on “Evaluating forecasts: why proper scoring rules and consistent scoring functions matter”. It will be the subject of an IJF invited paper in due course.
One of the things he talked about was the “Murphy diagram” for comparing forecasts, as proposed in Ehm et al (2015). Here’s how it works for comparing mean forecasts. Continue reading →
For the next few weeks I am travelling in North America and will be giving the following talks.
The Yahoo talk will be streamed live.
I’ll post slides on my main site after each talk.
This week I uploaded a new version of the forecast package to CRAN. As there were a lot of changes, I decided to increase the version number to 6.0.
The changes are all outlined in the ChangeLog file as usual. I will highlight some of the more important changes since v5.0 here. Continue reading →
We are now advertising for various positions in applied statistics, operations research and applied mathematics.
These jobs are with MAXIMA (the Monash Academy for Cross & Interdisciplinary Mathematical Applications).
Please do not send any questions to me (I won’t answer). Click above and follow the instructions.
I was recently interviewed as part of a promotion for the Monash Business School. The interviews can be watched below if anyone is interested. The titles chosen weren’t my ideas. Continue reading →
I’m currently attending the one day workshop on this topic at QUT in Brisbane. This morning I spoke on “Visualizing and forecasting big time series data”. My slides are here.
The talks are being streamed.
Big data is now endemic in business, industry, government, environmental management, medical science, social research and so on. One of the commensurate challenges is how to effectively model and analyse these data.
This workshop will bring together national and international experts in statistical modelling and analysis of big data, to share their experiences, approaches and opinions about future directions in this field.
This poem was written by David Goddard from the Monash University Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. It is reproduced here with his permission. The poem won the inaugural Monash University poetry competition and will soon be published in an anthology of contemporary poetry. Continue reading →
The International Association for Statistical Computing (IASC) is holding a Data Analysis Competition. Winners will be invited to present their work at the Joint Meeting of IASC-ABE Satellite Conference for the 60th ISI WSC 2015 to be held at Atlântico Búzios Convention & Resort in Búzios, RJ, Brazil (August 2–4, 2015). They will also be invited to submit a manuscript for possible publication (following peer review) to IASC’s official journal, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis. Continue reading →
I’ve now resurrected the collection of research journals that I follow, and set it up as a shared collection in feedly. So anyone can easily subscribe to all of the same journals, or select a subset of them, to follow on feedly. Continue reading →