Murphy diagrams in R

At the recent Inter­na­tional Sym­po­sium on Fore­cast­ing, held in River­side, Cal­i­for­nia, Till­man Gneit­ing gave a great talk on “Eval­u­at­ing fore­casts: why proper scor­ing rules and con­sis­tent scor­ing func­tions mat­ter”. It will be the sub­ject of an IJF invited paper in due course.

One of the things he talked about was the “Mur­phy dia­gram” for com­par­ing fore­casts, as pro­posed in Ehm et al (2015). Here’s how it works for com­par­ing mean fore­casts. Con­tinue reading →

Useful tutorials

There are some tools that I use reg­u­larly, and I would like my research stu­dents and post-​​docs to learn them too. Here are some great online tuto­ri­als that might help.

North American seminars: June 2015

For the next few weeks I am trav­el­ling in North Amer­ica and will be giv­ing the fol­low­ing talks.

The Yahoo talk will be streamed live.

I’ll post slides on my main site after each talk.

R vs Autobox vs ForecastPro vs ...

Every now and then a com­mer­cial soft­ware ven­dor makes claims on social media about how their soft­ware is so much bet­ter than the fore­cast pack­age for R, but no details are provided.

There are lots of rea­sons why you might select a par­tic­u­lar soft­ware solu­tion, and R isn’t for every­one. But any­one claim­ing supe­ri­or­ity should at least pro­vide some evi­dence rather than make unsub­stan­ti­ated claims. Con­tinue reading →

Dark themes for writing

I spend much of my day sit­ting in front of a screen, cod­ing or writ­ing. To limit the strain on my eyes, I use a dark theme as much as pos­si­ble. That is, I write with light col­ored text on a dark back­ground. I don’t know why this is not the default in more soft­ware as it makes a big dif­fer­ence after a few hours of writing.

Most of the time, I am writ­ing using either Sub­lime Text, RStu­dio or TeX­studio. Each of them can be set to use a dark theme with syn­tax col­or­ing to high­light struc­tural fea­tures in the text.
Con­tinue reading →