What to cite?

This ques­tion comes from a com­ment on another post:

I’ve seen authors cit­ing as many ref­er­ences as pos­si­ble to try to please poten­tial ref­er­ees. Many of those ref­er­ences are low qual­ity papers though. Any gen­eral guid­ance about a typ­i­cal length for the ref­er­ence section?

It depends on the sub­ject and style of the paper. I’ve writ­ten a paper with over 900 cita­tions, but that was a review of time series fore­cast­ing over a 25 year period, and so it had to include a lot of references.

I’ve also writ­ten a paper with just four cita­tions. As it was a com­men­tary, it did not need a lot of con­tex­tual information.

Rather than pro­vide guid­ance on the length of the ref­er­ence sec­tion, I think it is bet­ter to fol­low some gen­eral prin­ci­ples of cita­tion in research. Con­tinue reading →

Nominations for best International Journal of Forecasting paper, 2012-2013

Every two years, the Inter­na­tional Jour­nal of Fore­cast­ing awards a prize for the best paper pub­lished in a two year period. It is now time to iden­tify the best paper pub­lished in the IJF dur­ing 2012 and 2013. There is always about 18 months delay after the pub­li­ca­tion period to allow time for reflec­tion, cita­tions, etc. The prize is US$1000 plus an engraved plaque. Con­tinue reading →

Honoring Herman Stekler

stekler_The first issue of the IJF for 2015 has just been pub­lished, and I’m delighted that it includes a spe­cial sec­tion hon­or­ing Her­man Stek­ler. It includes arti­cles cov­er­ing a range of his fore­cast­ing inter­ests, although not all of them (sports fore­cast­ing is miss­ing). Her­man him­self wrote a paper for it look­ing at “Forecasting—Yesterday, Today and Tomor­row”.

He is in a unique posi­tion to write such a paper as he has been doing fore­cast­ing research longer than any­one else on the planet — his first pub­lished paper on fore­cast­ing appeared in 1959. Her­man is now 82 years old, and is still very active in research. Only a cou­ple of months ago, he wrote to me with some new research ideas he had been think­ing about, ask­ing me for some feed­back. He is also an extra­or­di­nar­ily con­sci­en­tious and care­ful asso­ciate edi­tor of the IJF and a delight to work with. He is truly “a scholar and a gen­tle­man” and I am very happy that we can honor Her­man in this man­ner. Thanks to Tara Sin­clair, Prakash Loun­gani and Fred Joutz for putting this trib­ute together.

We also pub­lished an inter­view with Her­man in the IJF in 2010 which con­tains some infor­ma­tion about his early years, grad­u­ate edu­ca­tion and first aca­d­e­mic jobs.

IJF review papers

Review papers are extremely use­ful for new researchers such as PhD stu­dents, or when you want to learn about a new research field. The Inter­na­tional Jour­nal of Fore­cast­ing pro­duced a whole review issue in 2006, and it con­tains some of the most highly cited papers we have ever pub­lished. Now, begin­ning with the lat­est issue of the jour­nal, we have started pub­lish­ing occa­sional review arti­cles on selected areas of fore­cast­ing. The first two arti­cles are:

  1. Elec­tric­ity price fore­cast­ing: A review of the state-​​of-​​the-​​art with a look into the future by Rafał Weron.
  2. The chal­lenges of pre-​​launch fore­cast­ing of adop­tion time series for new durable prod­ucts by Paul Good­win, Sheik Meeran, and Karima Dyussekeneva.

Both tackle very impor­tant top­ics in fore­cast­ing. Weron’s paper con­tains a com­pre­hen­sive sur­vey of work on elec­tric­ity price fore­cast­ing, coher­ently bring­ing together a large body of diverse research — I think it is the longest paper I have ever approved at 50 pages. Good­win, Meeran and Dyussekeneva review research on new prod­uct fore­cast­ing, a prob­lem every com­pany that pro­duces goods or ser­vices has faced; when there are no his­tor­i­cal data avail­able, how do you fore­cast the sales of your product?

We have a few other review papers in progress, so keep an eye out for them in future issues.