IJF Best Paper Award 2014-2015

Every two years we award a prize for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting. It is now time to identify the best paper published in the IJF during 2014 and 2015. There is always about 18 months delay after the publication period to allow time for reflection, citations, etc. The prize is US$1000 plus an engraved plaque. I will present the prize at the ISF in Cairns in late June.

Nominations are invited from any reader of the IJF. Each person may nominate up to three papers, but you cannot nominate a paper that you have coauthored yourself. Papers coauthored by one of the six editors (Hyndman, Kapetanios, McCracken, Önkal, Ruiz, or van Dijk) are not eligible for the prize. All nominated papers are to be accompanied by a short statement (up to 200 words) from the nominator, explaining why the paper deserves an award.

You can see all the papers published in the period 2014-2105 on Google Scholar. You can also download a spreadsheet of the relevant papers with citations as counted by Scopus. Scopus does not cover every published journal, so the citation counts are underestimates, but they give some general guide as to which papers have attracted the attention of researchers. Google Scholar includes far more citations including working papers, but there may be some double counting.

Of course, a good paper does not always get noticed, so don’t let the citation count sway you too much in nominating what you consider to be the best IJF paper from this period.

Nominations should be sent by email to me by 30 April 2017.

IJF Tao Hong Award for the best paper in energy forecasting 2013-2014

Professor Tao Hong has generously funded a new prize for the best IJF paper on energy forecasting, to be awarded every two years. The first award will be for papers published in the International Journal of Forecasting during the period 2013-2014. The prize will be US$1000 plus an engraved plaque. The award committee is Rob J Hyndman, Pierre Pinson and James Mitchell.

Nominations are invited from any reader of the IJF. Each person may nominate up to three papers, but you cannot nominate a paper that you have coauthored yourself. Papers coauthored by Tao Hong or one of the award committee are not eligible for the prize. All nominations are to be accompanied by a short statement (up to 200 words) from the nominator, explaining why the paper deserves an award.

You can see the relevant papers published in the period 2013-2014 on Google Scholar. Of course, a good paper does not always get noticed, so don’t let the citation count sway you too much in nominating what you consider to be the best IJF paper from this period.

Nominations should be sent to me by email by 8 February 2017.

What is going on?

I seem to be getting an increasing number of submissions where the author has clearly not bothered to actually check that the paper was submitted correctly. Here is a rejection letter I wrote today.

Dear xxxxx

I am writing concerning manuscript #INTFOR_16xxxxx entitled “xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx” which you submitted to the International Journal of Forecasting.

Thank you for this submission, but as it consists entirely of the IJF author guidelines, it is not suitable for publication in the IJF. We publish original research, not author guidelines. Perhaps the Journal for Guidelines would be an appropriate outlet.

In future, when you are asked to check the pdf of your paper, you might find it useful to actually do so, rather than just claim to have done so. That way, you might avoid this kind of mistake.

In the light of the comments above, I have chosen not to publish your manuscript in the International Journal of Forecasting. I know this will be disappointing to you, but we receive a large number of submissions and can only publish a small percentage of them.

Thank you for considering the International Journal of Forecasting for the publication of your research. I hope the outcome of this specific submission will not discourage you from the submission of future manuscripts.

Sincerely,
Prof. Rob J Hyndman
Editor-in-Chief, International Journal of Forecasting

Tourism time series repository

A few years ago, I wrote a paper with George Athanasopoulos and others about a tourism forecasting competition. We originally made the data available as an online supplement to the paper, but that has unfortunately since disappeared although the paper itself is still available.

So I am posting the data here in case anyone wants to use it for replicating our results, or for other research purposes. The data are split into monthly, quarterly and yearly data. There are 366 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 518 yearly series. Each group of series is further split into training data and test data. Further information is provided in the paper.

If you use the data in a publication, please cite the IJF paper as the source, along with a link to this blog post.

Download the zip file

The latest IJF issue with GEFCom2014 results

The latest issue of the IJF is a bumper issue with over 500 pages of forecasting insights.

The GEFCom2014 papers are included in a special section on probabilistic energy forecasting, guest edited by Tao Hong and Pierre Pinson. This is a major milestone in energy forecasting research with the focus on probabilistic forecasting and forecast evaluation done using a quantile scoring method. Only a few years ago I was having to explain to energy professionals why you couldn’t use a MAPE to evaluate a percentile forecast. With this special section, we now have a tutorial review on probabilistic electric load forecasting by Tao Hong and Shu Fan, which should help everyone get up to speed with current forecasting approaches, evaluation methods and common misunderstandings. The section also contains a large number of very high quality articles showing how to do state-of-the-art density forecasting for electricity load, electricity price, solar and wind power. Moreover, we have some benchmarks on publicly available data sets so future researchers can easily compare their methods against these published results.

In addition to the special section on probabilistic energy forecasting, there is an invited review paper on call centre forecasting by Ibrahim, Ye, L’Ecuyer and Shen. This is an important area in practice, and this paper provides a helpful review of the literature, a summary of the key issues in building good models, and suggests some possible future research directions.

There is also an invited paper from Blasques, Koopman, Łasak and Lucas on “In-sample confidence bands and out-of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters in observation-driven models” with some great discussion from Catherine Forbes and Pierre Perron. This was the subject of Siem Jan Koopman’s ISF talk in 2014.

Finally, there are 18 regular contributed papers, more than we normally publish in a whole issue, on topics ranging from forecasting excess stock returns to demographics of households, from forecasting food prices, to evaluating forecasts of counts and intermittent demand. Check them all out on ScienceDirect.

2017 International Symposium on Energy Analytics

Predictive Energy Analytics in the Big Data World

Cairns, Australia, June 22-23, 2017

ISEA2017

snorkellers-on-great-barrier-reef

This will be a great conference, and it is in a great location — Cairns, Australia, right by the Great Barrier Reef. Even better, if you stay on you can attend the International Symposium on Forecasting which immediately follows the International Symposium on Energy Analytics.

So block out 22-28 June 2017 on your calendars so you can enjoy a tropical paradise in one of the most beautiful parts of Australia, while attending two awesome conferences.

Continue reading →

IJF best paper awards

Today at the International Symposium on Forecasting, I announced the awards for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting in the period 2012-2013.

We make an award every two years to the best paper(s) published in the journal. There is always about 18 months delay after the publication period to allow time for reflection, citations, etc. The selected papers are selected by vote of the editorial board. The best paper wins an engraved bronze plaque and US$1000. Any other awards are in the form of certificates. Continue reading →

R vs Autobox vs ForecastPro vs …

Every now and then a commercial software vendor makes claims on social media about how their software is so much better than the forecast package for R, but no details are provided.

There are lots of reasons why you might select a particular software solution, and R isn’t for everyone. But anyone claiming superiority should at least provide some evidence rather than make unsubstantiated claims. Continue reading →