IJF best paper awards

Today at the Inter­na­tional Sym­po­sium on Fore­cast­ing, I announced the awards for the best paper pub­lished in the Inter­na­tional Jour­nal of Fore­cast­ing in the period 2012–2013.

We make an award every two years to the best paper(s) pub­lished in the jour­nal. There is always about 18 months delay after the pub­li­ca­tion period to allow time for reflec­tion, cita­tions, etc. The selected papers are selected by vote of the edi­to­r­ial board. The best paper wins an engraved bronze plaque and US$1000. Any other awards are in the form of cer­tifi­cates. Con­tinue reading →

North American seminars: June 2015

For the next few weeks I am trav­el­ling in North Amer­ica and will be giv­ing the fol­low­ing talks.

The Yahoo talk will be streamed live.

I’ll post slides on my main site after each talk.

R vs Autobox vs ForecastPro vs ...

Every now and then a com­mer­cial soft­ware ven­dor makes claims on social media about how their soft­ware is so much bet­ter than the fore­cast pack­age for R, but no details are provided.

There are lots of rea­sons why you might select a par­tic­u­lar soft­ware solu­tion, and R isn’t for every­one. But any­one claim­ing supe­ri­or­ity should at least pro­vide some evi­dence rather than make unsub­stan­ti­ated claims. Con­tinue reading →

Thinking big at Yahoo

I’m speak­ing in the “Yahoo Labs Big Thinkers” series on Fri­day 26 June. I hope I can live up to the title!

My talk is on “Explor­ing the bound­aries of pre­dictabil­ity: what can we fore­cast, and when should we give up?”  Essen­tially I will start with some of the ideas in this post, and then dis­cuss the fea­tures of hard-​​to-​​forecast time series.

So if you’re in the San Fran­cisco Bay area, please come along. Oth­er­wise, it will be streamed live on the Yahoo Labs web­site. Con­tinue reading →