Data Science for Managers (short course)

I am teach­ing part of a short-​​course on Data Sci­ence for Man­agers from 10–12 Octo­ber in Melbourne.

Course Overview

The impact of Data Sci­ence on mod­ern busi­ness is sec­ond only to the intro­duc­tion of com­put­ers. And yet, for many busi­nesses the bar­rier of entry remains too high due to lack of knowhow, organ­i­sa­tional iner­tia, dif­fi­cul­ties in hir­ing the right man­power, an appar­ent need for upfront com­mit­ment, and more.

This course is designed to address these bar­ri­ers, giv­ing the nec­es­sary knowl­edge and skills to flesh out and man­age Data Sci­ence func­tions within your organ­i­sa­tion, tak­ing the anxiety-​​factor out of the Big Data rev­o­lu­tion and demon­strat­ing how data-​​driven decision-​​making can be inte­grated into one’s organ­i­sa­tion to har­ness exist­ing advan­tages and to cre­ate new opportunities.

Assum­ing min­i­mal prior knowl­edge, this course pro­vides com­plete cov­er­age of the key aspects, includ­ing data wran­gling, mod­el­ling and analy­sis, predictive-​​, descrip­tive– and prescriptive-​​analytics, data man­age­ment and cura­tion, stan­dards for data stor­age and analy­sis, the use of struc­tured, semi-​​structured and unstruc­tured data as well as of open pub­lic data, and the data-​​analytic value chain, all cov­ered at a fun­da­men­tal level.

More details avail­able at it​.monash​.edu/​d​a​t​a​-​s​c​ience.

Early-​​bird book­ings close in a few days.


The bias-variance decomposition

This week, I am teach­ing my Busi­ness Ana­lyt­ics class about the bias-​​variance trade-​​off. For some rea­son, the proof is not con­tained in either ESL or ISL, even though it is quite sim­ple. I also dis­cov­ered that the proof cur­rently pro­vided on Wikipedia makes lit­tle sense in places.

So I wrote my own for the class. It is longer than nec­es­sary to ensure there are no jumps that might con­fuse stu­dents.
Con­tinue reading →

Murphy diagrams in R

At the recent Inter­na­tional Sym­po­sium on Fore­cast­ing, held in River­side, Cal­i­for­nia, Till­man Gneit­ing gave a great talk on “Eval­u­at­ing fore­casts: why proper scor­ing rules and con­sis­tent scor­ing func­tions mat­ter”. It will be the sub­ject of an IJF invited paper in due course.

One of the things he talked about was the “Mur­phy dia­gram” for com­par­ing fore­casts, as pro­posed in Ehm et al (2015). Here’s how it works for com­par­ing mean fore­casts. Con­tinue reading →

Useful tutorials

There are some tools that I use reg­u­larly, and I would like my research stu­dents and post-​​docs to learn them too. Here are some great online tuto­ri­als that might help.

Keeping up to date with my research papers

Many peo­ple ask me to let them know when I write a new research paper. I can’t do that as there are too many peo­ple involved, and it is not scalable.

The solu­tion is sim­ple. Take your pick from the fol­low­ing options. Each is auto­matic and will let you know when­ever I pro­duce a new paper.

  1. Sub­scribe to the rss feed on my web­site using feedly or some other rss reader.
  2. Sub­scribe to new papers via email from feedburner.
  3. Go to my Google scholar page and click “Fol­low” at the top of the page.

The lat­ter method will work for any­one with a Google scholar page. The Google scholar option only includes research papers. The first two meth­ods also include any new sem­i­nars I give or new soft­ware pack­ages I write.

IJF best paper awards

Today at the Inter­na­tional Sym­po­sium on Fore­cast­ing, I announced the awards for the best paper pub­lished in the Inter­na­tional Jour­nal of Fore­cast­ing in the period 2012–2013.

We make an award every two years to the best paper(s) pub­lished in the jour­nal. There is always about 18 months delay after the pub­li­ca­tion period to allow time for reflec­tion, cita­tions, etc. The selected papers are selected by vote of the edi­to­r­ial board. The best paper wins an engraved bronze plaque and US$1000. Any other awards are in the form of cer­tifi­cates. Con­tinue reading →

North American seminars: June 2015

For the next few weeks I am trav­el­ling in North Amer­ica and will be giv­ing the fol­low­ing talks.

The Yahoo talk will be streamed live.

I’ll post slides on my main site after each talk.

R vs Autobox vs ForecastPro vs ...

Every now and then a com­mer­cial soft­ware ven­dor makes claims on social media about how their soft­ware is so much bet­ter than the fore­cast pack­age for R, but no details are provided.

There are lots of rea­sons why you might select a par­tic­u­lar soft­ware solu­tion, and R isn’t for every­one. But any­one claim­ing supe­ri­or­ity should at least pro­vide some evi­dence rather than make unsub­stan­ti­ated claims. Con­tinue reading →