Talk to be given at the International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam. 1 July 2014
Archive for the ‘Talks’ Category:
This is a short course I am giving at Humboldt University, Berlin, 24-25 June 2014.
Abstract: Functional time series are curves that are observed sequentially in time, one curve being observed in each time period. In demography, examples include curves formed by annual death rates as a function of age, or annual fertility rates as a function of age. In finance, functional time series can occur in the form of bond yield curves, for example, with each curve being the yield of a bond as a function of the maturity of a bond. I will discuss methods for describing, modelling and forecasting such functional time series data.
I am giving a two-part seminar at the Energy Forum, Valais/Wallis, Switzerland, on 17 June 2014.
Abstract: Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in short-term load allocation and long-term planning for future generation facilities and transmission augmentation. It is a challenging problem because of the different uncertainties including underlying population growth, changing technology, economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions (and the timing of those conditions), as well as the general randomness inherent in individual usage. It is also subject to some known calendar effects due to the time of day, day of week, time of year, and public holidays. But the most challenging part is that we often want to forecast the peak demand rather than the average demand. Consequently, it is necessary to adopt a probabilistic view of potential peak demand levels in order to evaluate and hedge the financial risk accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty.
A one-day workshop for the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 30 May 2014
1. Exponential smoothing
2. Structural models
3. ARIMA and RegARMA models, and dlm
Talk presented at the conference “New Trends on Intelligent Systems and Soft Computing 2014″, University of Granada, Spain. 13-14 February 2014.